Musings about the largeness of space...

At the moment, I am fascinated by the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. I think there's so much interesting thinking one can do on those two things. In a nutshell, the first is a very general formula into which one can plug in some values and come up with how many civilizations exist in our galaxy with which we should be able to communicate. The second is the question: "That number is not zero. Where are they?"

Reading further down the page for the Drake Equation, you can see some values that were plugged into it in 1961, when it was introduced. There is considerable debate on the validity of those values, but it's fun to watch astronomy mature with the creation of better tools over time, and thus be able to plug in more accurate numbers. Unfortunately, as we learn more about space and planets and other solar systems, it would appear that the number predicted by the Drake equation gets lower and lower; it produced the number 10 in 1961 but only gives a 2 with current data.

That means, aside from us, there's probably only one other race in this galaxy with which we can communicate. That's going to make them pretty darn hard to find; the galaxy is a very, very big place. And if the number goes much lower, say to 0.5, that means we're not only likely the only race in this galaxy, but also the only one in this galaxy and the next. If you thought it was hard to find another intelligent race in this galaxy, having to look two or three galaxies over to find one is a dire prospect.

On top of that, think carefully about that L value in the equation: "The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space". 10,000 years is the original number used, and is still the current popular number. What happens after that? You could be an optimist and assume after 10,000 years a civilization moves to some undetectable communication system... or you could subscribe to the other popular theory that that's when the civilization destroys itself.

We humans here on Earth have an L value of 70; for 70 years, we've been shooting detectable stuff into space. Another 9,930 years seems like a lot of time left to go, certainly longer than you or I will be around... but that's nothing if we're supposed to hop two or three or more galaxies over in search of our intelligent, communicating brethren, if the estimates from the Drake Equation start to fall below zero.

Of course, no matter how low that number gets, we could get lucky and stumble upon something much closer and much sooner than that, since it's really just based on probabilities. Or, we could be fairly wildly wrong about some of our assumptions we're plugging in, and there are (on average) hundreds or even thousands of talkative critters right here in the Milky Way! Of course, if that were the case... well, we're right back to the Fermi Paradox. Where are they?

Doug

[edit] I also go nuts thinking about the Kardashev Scale, too. Man, I'm a sci-fi geek.

Hello.

Hey there. I'm not exactly sure what I'll be writing here, but it could be rants about people and society in general, ideas for video games, amusing stories of various events...

Doug